Population Patterns ( including demographic transition model)

Population Change

Population Growth

• The world's population reached its first billion in 1800
• It then took 123 years to reach its seconds billion in 1933
• The rate of growth then almost quadrupled, reaching the third billion just 33 years later.
• The transitions between the 4th, 5th and 6th billions were both 12 years, indicating a slowing in population growth.
• It is predicted that the population will reach 9 billion in 2054, 23 years after reaching the 8th billion

Contribution to population growth

Although the population has grown exponentially, MEDCs have made very little contribution to this. LEDCs are mainly accountable for the dramatic changes seen in population trends throughout history.

The Future

Analysts disagree on the future of population growth.

• The most pessimistic viewpoint suggests that the population will reach 14 billion by 2100 and continue to grow past this figure.
• Another suggests that growth will plateau at 9 billion by 2075
• The most optimistic theory suggests that population will peak at 7.5 billion by 1934 and begin to fall thereafter.

The Demographic Transition Model

• Stage 1: High Fluctuating (Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Rainforest tribes)
• Stage 2: Early Expanding (Sri Lanka, Kenya)
• Stage 3: Late Expanding (China, Cub, Australia)
• Stage 4: Low Fluctuating (UK, Japan, Canada)
• Stage 5: Fluctuating/Declining (Hungary)

UK's movement through the demographic transition model

• The UK was in stage 1 of the DMT until 1740.
  • 1665: Great Plague
  • 1720 - 1740: Cheap Gin available damaged people's health (Gin tax introduced in 1751)
• The UK was in stage 2 of the DMT between 1740 and 1850
  • 1770-1870: infant mortality reduced because if improved sanitation
  • 1780: improved agriculture
  • 1798: Small pox vaccine
  • 1800: Industrial revolution (people moved to cities and employers demanded food for their workers)
  • 1848: Public health act reduced TB and scarlet fever
• The UK was in stage 3 of the DMT between 1850 and 1940
  • Child labour was harder to find
  • Late 19th century, sewage was managed and water supplies cleaned
  • 1910: improved health of mothers and…