UK NBS Policy and Future Trade-Offs

78th largest land area in world (242,495km2)

- GB 9th largest island in world, but a small country

21st largest population in world (2021) with UK population density of 276 people/km2

- Mostly in England

13% forest cover (2023) - 14,000 ha new woodland in UK 2021/22

Land ownership mostly aristocracy (30%)

Current tenancy system = approx 30% farmers are tenants and do NOT own the land they farm - large implications on NBS feasability

Climate Change Act 2008, updated 2019 to include Net Zero by 2050

- Framework setting UK apporach to lowering emissions and dealing with climate change. In 2019, goal for reducing GHGs to at least 80% below 1990 levels CHANGED to 100% below = net zero GHG emissions. Formulated independent advisory board = CCC

Environment Act 2021, detail update from 25YEP outlined in EIP 2023

- Bringing previous things in EU law under UK following Brexit. Key aspects relevant to NBS include halting decline of species populations by 2030, deliver net zero ambitions and boost nature recovery, restore/create >500,000 ha of wildlife-rich habitat to meet '30 by 30' goal

Key policies may require 18% more land than exists

Current forest cover in England = 10%. Gaining 0.26% in 5 years and continued rate = 5 x 0.3% by 2050 = 11.5% forest cover = assume rate increases post 2028. Need 1.5% per 5 years from 2030 on (500% ambition increase). In 2022/23, 3130 ha planted in England - track for 18,800 ha by 2028

Agriculture Act 2020 - replace farm payments under EU Common Agricultural Policy with bespoke UK system better targeted on public goods

- 'public money for public goods' under ELM (Environmental Land Management scheme) seen as main vehicle implementing EA and key to meeting net zero by 2050

Still sizeable amount of 'basic payment' schemes (old EU rules) - others are agri-environment schemes focused on biodiversity outcomes

3 tiers of ELM - 

1. SFI, Sustainable Farming Initative (entirely replace Basic Payments by 2028). Aim toward more environmentally friendly farming

2. Countryside Stewardship - actions such as managing forests, NFM, hedgerows. Higher than SFI = cost more but more benefits

3. Landscape Recovery Schemes - large projects coordinated by organisations = money for large scale recovery

Woodland creation - requires EIA

- Only allowed 'low-grade' agricultural land, however grant help available - including funding to develop woodland plan

= agroforestry much simpler as land remains agriculturally classified. Can get SFI money under many agroforestry options if land remains in 'good agricultural condition'

ELM - agri-environmetnal payments in Wales only 15% total support (2016) - most farmers recieve very small payments. Authors argue system is prescriptive and results-based system required. Take scenarios of what could happen and how market might develop - land modelling system, what is needed to cause desired shift?

Wales also have the Environmental and Rural Affairs Monitoring and Modelling Programme

Under the EA, 10% uplift of biodiversity is required on developments - into law 2024 but voluntary before this

Building development = net loss of biodiversity - idea to increase biodiversity in one place while having to remove it from another = no net loss. But adding more biodiversity than what was there originally (10%) = net gain

Most BNG delivered was moderate condition neutral grassland from the ease of implementation - while the majority of land taken for developments were cropland or modified grassland

EIP 2023 aim to raise at least £500 million per year of private finance into nature recovery 2027, and >£1 billion by 2030

Mechanism already exist in Woodland Carbon Code and Peatland Code - voluntary

2 published reports on the matter -

1. Nature Markets Framework 2023 - argue green finance could supplement ELM and BNG income, 'stacking' and 'bundling' of getting multiple money sources for same land if providing multiple ES

2. Green Finance Strategy 2023 - delivering 'UK Green Taxonomy - tool to provide investors with definitions of which economic activities should be labelled as green'. Align overseas aid with Paris agreement and UK Nature Accelerator to help projects meet guidelines for private funding

Must avoid greenwashing

BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)

Achieving 1.5 degree will be challenging wihtout negative emission technology - BECCS perhaps most promising and seen by gov to play key role in delivering Net Zero

CCC say some BECCS required for net zero - balanced net zero pathway 6th carbon budget assume 22 MtCO2e by 2035, and 53 MtCO2e by 2050 = appox 22,500 MW BECCS power plants by 2050

Welfare benefits decrease as the size of BECCS plants increase from 500 MW to 1000 MW

Bioenergy scenario - bioenergy crops worth having from low emissions, but not -ve emission tech

Land use change - agricultural/horicultural decreases, broadleaf woodland slowly increases

Substantial decreases in carbon - up to 42% decreases in agricultural peatland and woodland emissions

Birds - farmland specialists generally badly affected - but across ALL species, benefits quite substantial

Food production - up to 30% loss animal based product and 24% loss plant based - figures without effect of CC