G2 Demographic Challenges

Reasons why we get Ageing Populations ? 

- Higher Life Expectancy

Factors - Better diet, advances in medicine, more education on better lifestyle

- Falling Fertility Rates 

More women in careers, Brazil Stage 3 (54% Women in jobs) 

- Cultural Change 

Family planning and economic development 

Social - 

Positive: 

Elderly Look after grandchildren 

Less crime rates

Recreational facilities cheap 

Negative: 

Old people feel isolated 

More Medical services needed 

Lack of carers 

Young People Move away 

Economic - 

Positve: 

More voluntary work 

Grey pound contributes to the economy 

Negative: 

Higher Dependancy ratio

More pensions to pay 

Low paid jobs for working age

Less jobs availiable 

Low income tax revenue 

Not enough fudning for support services 

Environmental - 

Postive: 

Old people dedicate time - Action groups 

Negative: 

Shops and services tailored to older generation 

1. Promoting Immigration 

2. Pro Natalist, Higher fertility rates 

3. Changing Retirement Ages and Pensions 

Case Study: UK Migration 

Solution: 

Allow immigrantion of foriegn workers to counter dependency ratio. 

From 1988 to 2006 the net immigration has been around 200,000 per year. 

Economically active migrants work and pay taxes 

These taxes provide extra money to cover high numbers of dependent population 

Problems: 

Immigrants often bring or have children meaning strains to school services 

Social tensions raised as well. 

Case Study: France 

Pronatalist Policies: 

- Abolishing law of free sale of contraceptives 

- French women have paid, protected maternity leave for 6 weeks before and 10 weeks after birth of 1st and 2nd child. 

- Allowed Parental leave until the child is of 3 years of age with entittlement to old job or similiar. 

Sucess of Policies: 

In 2011 - 2 Children born per women in France. 

France ranked first for total feritlity rate amongst Eu in 2013 

Case Study: UK 

State Pension age - Rise to 66 in 2020 then 68 in 2028 

Ensures People dont spend more than a 1/3 of there lifespan drawing a pension. 

The savings will come from reducing pensions payments and higher tax revenues. 

Keeps affordabilty of paying pensions without raising taxes substantially. 

Sucessful?: 

Without Raise in Retirement 

Dependancy Ratio will incrase from 30% to around 50% by 2051]

With Change 

projected to only be 37% dependancy 

Case Study: HIV/AIDS 

Prevalence of HIV (% of Adults) 

Botswana - 24

South Africa - 18 

Uganda - 5

World - 0.8 

Case Study: Uganda (5% prevalence) 

1. 1986 - ABC Programme 

Abstinence from sex until marriage 

Be faithful to one partner 

Use a Condom 

2. 1990 - Aids information centre established (Voluntary conselling and testing) 

3. 1994 - $75 Million spent on Aids control Programme 

To fight epidemic through education and provision of easily accessible condoms 

- From 30% in 1990 to 5% by 2001 

- Life expectancy was 46 in 1990 and is now 54. 

- Death Rate was 19 in 1990 and is now 9. 

- Recent contraceptive/condom shortage due to USA pulling out foreign aid 

10 times incrases in the Prcie of Condoms 

- Malaria has hindered the disperal of funds availiable to combat it. 

- Most recent figure has risen to 6.5% as truckdrivers and sex workers are spreading it. 

Key Birth Rates 2010 

LEDCs average: 22 births/1000

MEDCs average: 11 births/1000

UK: 13 births/1000

Case Study: China 

Previous Chinese Ruler - "A large population gives a storng nation 

Promotes More Births 

Condemns birth control and banned contraceptives. 

Birth Rates over 25 in 1960's and early 1970's (Peaking at 40 in 1964) 

Country becomes over overpopulated currently 1.4 Billion. 

Chinese Policy: 

- Later, Longer, Fewer 

- Forced married couples to sign statements that obligated them to one child. 

- Women who had abortions were given free vacations. 

Sucessful? 

1960 - 43 births /per 1000

1979 - 18 births / per 1000 

Encouraged couples to get married later, wait longer to have children and prefably to have 1. 

Policy 2: One Child Policy

A couple was only allowed to have one child. 

In rural areas if the first child was a girl, they were allowed to have a second child. 

Policy recently ended in October 2015. 

Rewards: 

Extra Months pay each year until child 14. 

Better housing and health care 

Job promotion 

Punishments: 

No Privileges 

Second child is allowed to attend school

Can be fined muitple times income 

Lose their house and job

Birth Rate 1979 - 20 births /per 1000 

2003 - 12 births / per 1000

By 2030 if policy continue the population would stablise at 1.4 billion people. 

Why policy was ended? 

- An ageing population will occur 

- Gender imbalance 

- Ageing Population 

- Gender Imbalance

The 4, 2, 1 problem 

there are 4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 child. 

Policy changed to 2 child Policy as they to stop rasing old age dependancy ratio 

1980 - 50 million over 65's 

2010 - 100 million over 65's 

2030 - 200 million over 65's 

Needs more babies and more workers 

By 2050, more than a 25% of population will be over 65. 

Gender Imbalance - 

120 boys for each 100 girls 

The Policy estimated to have stopped 400 million babies from being born. 

China has a marked preference for male heirs 

Sex selective abortions have occured therefore many baby girls are aborted.