Forest-based NBS and NCS

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  • Created by: LaurMae
  • Created on: 22-05-24 12:50

Global restoration potential

Most important factors determining good sites for restoration -

A: Restoration benefits

- Biodiversity conservation

- Water security

- Climate change adaptation and mitigation

B: Restortation feasabiltiy

- Opportunity cost

- Low variation in restoration success

- High likelihood of forest persistence

Some best places often most expensive - highest opportunity areas are not too close to large cities

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Forest Transition Theory

13.6% of forests present in 2000 were disturbed in some way

Forest Transition Theory - as countries get richer, and population growth slows, less forest is cleared and some areas re-forested as agriculturally marginal land is abandoned

- Countries go from having high deforestation rates to a change to low. As population growth slows, remaining forests seem as important as well as areas previously liable for agriculture become less so

Main reason for increase in forest cover probably economic

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Drivers of global forest loss

The most important thing to stop deforestation = a reduction in demand for products that come from newly deforested land

Most important drivers of forest loss between 2000 and 2015 globally - Commodities (27.5%), Forestry (26%), Shifting agriculture (24%), Wildfire (23%), with urbanisation only 0.6%

Trade - use trade modelling to see if forest protection wihtin country leads to 'leakage' to other countries with less protection. Commodities driving deforestation vary between continents and countries

Leakage - diet is a key driver of deforestation. Driven by global demand, Brazil is the largest food producer in the world

- Soy Moratorium 2006 helped reduce soy demand in Amazon, but shifted the deforestation elsewhere

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Deforestation to Reforestation

Is this forest transition happening in the tropics? - to some extent in Brazil, but remains complicated and losses in Amazon still outweigh gains in Atlantic Forests

Brazil reforestation dynamics

Net reforestation in Atlantic Forest is complicated  -

- Post 2005 = net reforestation, age structure change to lose older natuve forests for younger native. Over time, rate of native forest loss = lose some new forests. In other areas, the opposite occurs

Atlantic Forests were 'on the verge of a forest transition' in 2015 - re-clearing of new forests reduced carbon sequestration to 33% of potential by 2019

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Maximising reforestation success

USE THE 10 GOLDEN RULES

Rule 2 = work together - projects where local communties are not key stakeholders usually fail

Rule 3 = aim to maximise biodiversity

Rule 4 = select appropriate areas

Rule 5 = use natural regenration wherever possible

Rule 10 = make it pay

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Tree planting vs natural regeneration

Plantations good for timber production, but much worse for ES. Natural regeneration of forests is the best way to increase carbon = more effective ecologically than assisted restoration

Trade offs between restoring for carbon or for biodiversity -

A: prioritize carbon

B: prioritize biodiversity 

C: prioritize low costs

D: prioritize carbon and biodiversity

E: prioritize carbon, biodiversity, and low cost

Best biodiversity outcomes of natural regeneration - being near existing forest and 'environmentally friendly' farming. While being near cities and high opportunity cost is NOT good

Natural regen works best if at least 50% contiguous forest within 5km of target site is present

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Making it Pay

Huge increases in reforestation projects = claimed to have planted 1.5 billion trees. However, very few are about natural regeneration, and there is little mention of monitoring success and survival rates = likely goals are utilitarian and not ecological

Is there too much focus on forests? using Atlas of Forest Landscape Restoration Opportunities as base of reforestation opportunity - exclude agriculture and dense urban land

- For African output, some areas despite not being agricultural or urban are not suitable = savannas. Highlight many African countries targeting 100 million ha of savanna for reforestation as part of Bonn Challenge

'Dangerous distraction' debate of NBS and NCS

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